Catcher FWS FWAA
Johjima 10.1 1.9
Mauer 8.9 1.1
V.Martinez 8.9 0.0
I-Rod 7.2 1.1
Varitek 7.2 1.0
I expect I-Rod or Varitek to win it. There's no question it ought to go to Kenji Johjima.
Iron glove to Gregg Zaun.
Showing posts with label Catchers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Catchers. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
AL Gold Gloves: Catcher
Here are the AL Gold Glove candidates at catcher. I'll evaluate them using Fielding Win Shares and Fielding Wins Above Average (derived from fielder runs above average on BP, divided by 9):
I expect I-Rod or Varitek to win it. There's no question it ought to go to Kenji Johjima.
Iron glove to Gregg Zaun.
I expect I-Rod or Varitek to win it. There's no question it ought to go to Kenji Johjima.
Iron glove to Gregg Zaun.
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Friday, July 20, 2007
Dioner Navarro
If you don't know who this is, he's the starting catcher for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Don't bother getting familiar with him. He's horrible.
He's hitting .179/.241/.250, for a robust .491 OPS. He's a starting catcher who at the plate is far below replacement level for a catcher. According to BP, he's 12 runs below replacement. Makes you wonder if he's that far below replacement, why don't they replace him? Surely someone in the Tampa Bay minors could manage a .491 OPS.
How does he keep his job? Well, according to BP he's pretty good defensively, at 12 runs above replacement. That gives him a WARP1 of -.1, or essentially replacement level when both hitting and defense are accounted for. But as discussed in the past, it is more widely accepted that fielding should be measured against the positional average, not against replacement. There, Dioner earns a 0. He's average defensively. If you recalculate his WARP1 based on FRAA, instead of FRAR, you get a -1.3 WARP through a bit more than half a season. (Look out Jerry Narron!)
Who can the Devil Rays promote? Let's start at the big club. Raul Casanova, Navarro's backup, has an OPS of .758. His slugging percentage is higher than Navarro's OPS. His defense is a little less robust, but that is made up for by his hitting.
Josh Paul, also with the big club, is not the answer with a .547 OPS. He's been DL'd twice this season, and most recently was put on the 60-day DL on June 3 (and he has not returned).
There are three players at AAA Durham: Hernandez, Johnson and Riggans. Hernandez is the best hitter, turning in an .820 OPS. You have to discount that for league quality. If AAA is 93% of MLB quality, that's still a .763. Johnson, the youngest, would be below replacement level at the plate, b/c he is struggling at AAA. Riggans has had a shot in the bigs (10 ABs, in which he did nothing and then went on the DL), and is only managing a .770 OPS at all levels. He probably isn't the answer.
Down at AA (Montgomery): they've got Jaso, Arhart and Spring (a good name for a catcher). The latter two aren't hitting and Arhart is on the 7-day DL, but Jaso has an .876 OPS, translatable to something like a .770 at MLB. He's outhitting SS prospect Reid Brignac and his OPS is second on the team to consensus Top 10 prospect Evan Longoria. He is slumping since the All-Star break, but I bet we see him in September.
That's at least three real possibilities: Casanova, a major league veteran; Hernandez, the Crash Davis of the system (but really only 28); and Jaso, the 23-year old future.
He's hitting .179/.241/.250, for a robust .491 OPS. He's a starting catcher who at the plate is far below replacement level for a catcher. According to BP, he's 12 runs below replacement. Makes you wonder if he's that far below replacement, why don't they replace him? Surely someone in the Tampa Bay minors could manage a .491 OPS.
How does he keep his job? Well, according to BP he's pretty good defensively, at 12 runs above replacement. That gives him a WARP1 of -.1, or essentially replacement level when both hitting and defense are accounted for. But as discussed in the past, it is more widely accepted that fielding should be measured against the positional average, not against replacement. There, Dioner earns a 0. He's average defensively. If you recalculate his WARP1 based on FRAA, instead of FRAR, you get a -1.3 WARP through a bit more than half a season. (Look out Jerry Narron!)
Who can the Devil Rays promote? Let's start at the big club. Raul Casanova, Navarro's backup, has an OPS of .758. His slugging percentage is higher than Navarro's OPS. His defense is a little less robust, but that is made up for by his hitting.
Josh Paul, also with the big club, is not the answer with a .547 OPS. He's been DL'd twice this season, and most recently was put on the 60-day DL on June 3 (and he has not returned).
There are three players at AAA Durham: Hernandez, Johnson and Riggans. Hernandez is the best hitter, turning in an .820 OPS. You have to discount that for league quality. If AAA is 93% of MLB quality, that's still a .763. Johnson, the youngest, would be below replacement level at the plate, b/c he is struggling at AAA. Riggans has had a shot in the bigs (10 ABs, in which he did nothing and then went on the DL), and is only managing a .770 OPS at all levels. He probably isn't the answer.
Down at AA (Montgomery): they've got Jaso, Arhart and Spring (a good name for a catcher). The latter two aren't hitting and Arhart is on the 7-day DL, but Jaso has an .876 OPS, translatable to something like a .770 at MLB. He's outhitting SS prospect Reid Brignac and his OPS is second on the team to consensus Top 10 prospect Evan Longoria. He is slumping since the All-Star break, but I bet we see him in September.
That's at least three real possibilities: Casanova, a major league veteran; Hernandez, the Crash Davis of the system (but really only 28); and Jaso, the 23-year old future.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Hargrove and Narron
Mike Hargrove
Hargrove walks out on the team when it is finally turning things around. On the one hand I have some sympathy, because something weird is obviously going on with Hargrove personally (though he said it was nothing big). On the other hand, this team -- which is not tremendously talented -- is finally playing good baseball, and he drops out in the middle of the season.
Even Jose Guillen liked him.
Jerry Narron
Jerry Narron gets fired by the Reds. How did he get that job anyway? I guess if you spend enough time as a backup catcher, you've got a shot at managing bad ballclubs.
He was just a placeholder. There was nothing notable about his tenure, except that he was set up to be the scapegoat for bad front office decisions the last couple of years.
I remember a Narron baseball card from when I was a kid. Back when Topps had a monopoly. He had a pitiful pose. A kind of half-assed batting stance. Hmmmm.
Hargrove vs. Narron
I don't think Baseball Reference.com should first show Hargrove's managerial stats when you search for his name, before showing his playing stats. He was a better player than a manager. Career OPS+ of 121 isn't half bad, with two years in the 140s. He could also pick it at first.
I have no advice for Baseball Reference.com about whether Narron's managerial or playing record should appear first when you search for him. Theoretically, the answer is neither, but that's not practical.
Narron's best OPS+ was a 74 (63 for his career). He only had as many as 200 AB in one season. A miserable hitter. He accumulated a WARP3 of 0.9. That's right: 0.9 is his career total! Five of his 8 seasons were negative WARP3.
Did he make up for it with defense behind the plate? Defense alone would have given him about 2 WARP, so his hitting wiped out 1.1 of that. But that's if you use his fielding above replacement. Most people agree that fielding ought to be judged against average, and there he would have a -2.7 WARP. So if you use that figure, his career would be about 3.6 wins below replacement. The catching position must have been real thin in the early 80s.
Hargrove walks out on the team when it is finally turning things around. On the one hand I have some sympathy, because something weird is obviously going on with Hargrove personally (though he said it was nothing big). On the other hand, this team -- which is not tremendously talented -- is finally playing good baseball, and he drops out in the middle of the season.
Even Jose Guillen liked him.
Jerry Narron
Jerry Narron gets fired by the Reds. How did he get that job anyway? I guess if you spend enough time as a backup catcher, you've got a shot at managing bad ballclubs.
He was just a placeholder. There was nothing notable about his tenure, except that he was set up to be the scapegoat for bad front office decisions the last couple of years.
I remember a Narron baseball card from when I was a kid. Back when Topps had a monopoly. He had a pitiful pose. A kind of half-assed batting stance. Hmmmm.
Hargrove vs. Narron
I don't think Baseball Reference.com should first show Hargrove's managerial stats when you search for his name, before showing his playing stats. He was a better player than a manager. Career OPS+ of 121 isn't half bad, with two years in the 140s. He could also pick it at first.
I have no advice for Baseball Reference.com about whether Narron's managerial or playing record should appear first when you search for him. Theoretically, the answer is neither, but that's not practical.
Narron's best OPS+ was a 74 (63 for his career). He only had as many as 200 AB in one season. A miserable hitter. He accumulated a WARP3 of 0.9. That's right: 0.9 is his career total! Five of his 8 seasons were negative WARP3.
Did he make up for it with defense behind the plate? Defense alone would have given him about 2 WARP, so his hitting wiped out 1.1 of that. But that's if you use his fielding above replacement. Most people agree that fielding ought to be judged against average, and there he would have a -2.7 WARP. So if you use that figure, his career would be about 3.6 wins below replacement. The catching position must have been real thin in the early 80s.
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