Opening Day Matchup (Sort of)

Tonight's Atlanta and Philly matchup is a made-for-tv game, but it counts.  Brett Myers is starting for the Phillies in place of Cole Hamels. Kelly Johnson is currently anticipated to be the Braves leadoff hitter.  So the 2009 baseball season will start with Myers v. Johnson.

Johnson has faced Myers 18 times, in 7 games.  Here are some quick facts about the batter-pitcher matchup:

• Tonight's catcher for the Phillies, Carlos Ruiz, was only the receiver for 2 of those plate appearances
• In 67% of those plate appearances the bases were empty
• In 11% of those plate appearances the bases were full
• In the first 13 plate appearances, Johnson was hitless, although he did walk once
• His line against Myers:  .176/.222/.412, with one RBI
• Johnson struck out in 41% of his at-bats against Myers
• Myers has thrown him 74 pitches, 64% of which are strikes.
  

Johnson hit first in the batting order in five of his plate appearances against Myers, but he only lead off the inning in one of them.  He struck out.

In their most interesting matchup, Johnson came to the plate in the bottom of the 8th, with Philadelphia leading 8-6. Willie Harris was at first, Matt Diaz at second and Yunel Escobar at third.  There was one out. 

When the bottom of the 8th began, the Phillies had an 8-2 lead and Tom Gordon was on the hill.   Chipper Jones lead off the inning with a double.  After Mark Teixeira flied out to right, McCann singled.  Jeff Francouer, not exactly known for his clutch hitting, hit a bloop single just out of the reach of Utley, scoring Chipper and moving McCann to second.  Cox pinch ran for McCann, sending in Chris Woodward.  Cox also pinch hit for his pitcher, with Scott Thorman.  Thorman singled to load the bases.

Charlie Manuel brought in Myers to face Yunel Escobar, with the score now 8-3.  Myers began by throwing a wild pitch, scoring Woodward and advancing Frenchy and Thorman.  Three more balls in a row, and Escobar was standing on first.

Bases loaded again, this time for Matt Diaz with the score 8-4.  Diaz hit an infield single, scoring Francouer.  Myers then walked Willie Harris to force in the sixth run and bring Kelly Johnson to the plate with the bases loaded and a chance to do some damage.  He started him with two balls, but Johnson swung at the third, fouling out to Abraham Nunez at third for the second out.

Myers then retired Chipper on seven pitches, when Jones flied to left.

It wasn't Myers' day, though.  The Braves won 9-8, as Myers had a hairy 9th inning too.  He struck out Teixeira and got Brayan Pena to ground out to first.  A team down by two, in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and no one on base, has a 1.7% chance of winning the game.  Better than nothing.

Myers allowed Francoeur to single -- another infield single, this time to shortstop.  Francouer moved to second on defensive indifference -- kind of surprising with the tying run at the plate.  Prado then singled with a weak topper to Myers' right -- but good enough to get him on base and move Francouer to third.  Escobar walked again, and Diaz came to the plate with the bases loaded for the second time in consecutive innings.

Diaz cleared the bases with a double to left field, and Atlanta took the victory.  Diaz racked up 4 RBI in the 8th and 9th innings, and he was only in the game as a pinch hitter.

Weird Batting Line

You don't see this much: 1 for 1 with 5 RBI, no runs scored, and no walks. That's Chipper Jones' line from today's game. He was pulled in the bottom of the 5th since Atlanta had a 10-0 lead.

You can't get 5 RBI in one plate appearance. The best you can do is 4, with a grand slam, but Chipper didn't score any runs, which rules out the grand slam. He also didn't walk in any runs.

Here are his plate appearances:

1st: Sac fly w/RBI
2nd: Double w/3 RBI
4th: Sac fly w/RBI

That seems unusual.

I found four instances since 1957 of players who had 1 official AB and 5 or more RBI. (Actually, they all had exactly 1 AB and 5 RBI). They also all scored at least one run. In chronological order:

1. Bill Voss (Angels) had a grand slam and a sac fly in a 1970 game against the Royals. He walked twice and scored a run.

2. Mickey Tettleton (A's) had a three run HR and got the other 2 RBI on two walks in a 1986 game against the Yankees. He scored two runs.

3. Candy Maldonado (Indians) had the same line as Tettleton in a 1990 game against the Tigers, except Tettleton scored twice and Maldonado only once.

4. Keith Ginter (A's) had a three run HR and two sac flies in a 2005 game against the Giants. He walked once and scored one run.

I've never heard of Ginter, but he had 971 ABs in the majors, with Houston, Milwaukee and the A's. He was an average player, but average isn't so bad. He managed to amass 25 RBI in only 137 ABs in 2005. Not too shabby. 2005 was a horrible year for him, though. A 497 OPS, and he was out of the majors at age 29. He played for the Triple A team in Sacramento the next year and had an 800 OPS (again, not bad for a middle infielder). He is currently in Buffalo (Indians Triple A) where he is hitting 239/369/411 with 11 HR and 46 RBI. Maybe he'll get a callup if Barfield gets hurt.

Mistaken Platoon Splits

The Braves have decided to put Kelly Johnson at 2b when they face righties, and Yunel Escobar there when they face lefties.

Let's look at the splits. Johnson definitely ought to play against righties. A 913 OPS from your second baseman is nothing to sneeze at. Escobar is a poor 651 against righties. That portion of the platoon is working.

Now for the lefties. Escobar has a 790 OPS against lefties, which is pretty good. Kelly Johnson, however, has a 789 OPS against lefties -- nearly identical. Assuming that major leaguers hit better when they get lots of at bats, why sit Johnson against lefties when he is just as good as his platoon partner?

Could it be defense? Absolutely not. Escobar is very average defensively. Better than replacement, but -1 FRAA according to BP. Johnson, on the other hand, is superb. He is +16 FRAR and +9 FRAA. That 10 run difference on defense is worth a win.

Why, then, is Escobar playing against lefties? Because he has a very high batting average (.338) against them, and for some reason, that still blinds managers to what's best for the team.

Several books have been written about the Braves eschewing statistical analysis, including one by John Schuerholz ("Built to Win: Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball's Winningest GM") and a horribly one-sided Braves-commissioned piece of crap ("Scout's Honor: The Bravest Way To Build A Winning Team" -- one of the worst sports books I've read*).

Perhaps they ought to get on the statistics bandwagon, because they are wasting one of the best second basemen in the game.

*You can read my review of the book at Amazon.com